Today's Texas Air Quality Forecast

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso, and Lubbock areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Big Bend and Tyler-Longview areas.

Ongoing seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula are producing light to moderate amounts of residual smoke that will continue lingering and filtering over much of the state, with the exception of far West Texas; impacting spots at varying intensities with the heaviest concentrations over deep South Texas. These aerosols combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels, light density fine particulate matter from oil/gas operations and/or light burning activities across portions of Central Texas and the Permian Basin, as well as elevated relative humidity levels with patchy morning fog are expected to elevate PM2.5 concentrations across the majority of the state. While intermittent precipitation may reduce fine particulate levels at times across the eastern two-thirds of the state, the overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the lower to middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo area. The daily PM10 AQI is forecast to reach the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Gusty afternoon through late evening conditions may generate and transport patchy blowing dust through portions of far West Texas and the northern Texas Panhandle that depending on the potential density and coverage of the dust may be enough to raise the overall daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and to the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Midland-Odessa area; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Big Bend, El Paso, and Lubbock areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo area.

Model guidance suggests that more heavy density residual smoke from the seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula may begin to reach South Texas as well as the southern coastal bend of Texas and Rio Grande Valley regions although much of the smoke may remain aloft. The rest of the lighter to moderate density residual smoke may extend to cover the entire state at varying intensities with the exception of far West Texas. Concentrations are expected to gradually decrease across the Texas Panhandle as a cold front is forecast to arrive from the north, bringing northerly winds. Meanwhile, with slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels as well as elevated relative humidity levels across the rest of the state, PM2.5 concentrations are expected to remain elevated. More intense rain showers are forecast across North Central as well as Northeast Texas and may moreso reduce fine particulate levels at times than on Wednesday. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle to upper end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Big Bend, Houston, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, and Tyler-Longview areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Model guidance suggests that possible lingering suspended blowing dust generated the previous day over portions of far West Texas and the northern Texas Panhandle combined with slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of far West Texas and gusty afternoon conditions over the northern Texas Panhandle could periodically elevate fine particulate matter. The overall daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to reach the middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area and net out in the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo area. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area as well.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Amarillo, Big Bend, El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Depending on the density and coverage of residual smoke aerosols from seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula over the majority of the state with the exception of far West Texas and the Texas Panhandle combined with slightly elevated relative humidity levels and urban fine particulate background levels across the eastern two-thirds of the state, the daily PM2.5 AQI is forecast to possibly reach the middle of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo, Big Bend, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate levels associated with light morning winds and lower morning vertical mixing heights could be enough to raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to the middle of the "Moderate" range and the daily PM10 AQI to the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.

Light winds, warm temperatures, sufficient afternoon sunshine, and/or elevated incoming background levels could be enough for ozone to reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa areas and the upper end of the "Good" range in parts of the Amarillo and Big Bend areas.

Light to moderate density residual smoke from ongoing seasonal fire activities throughout central-southern Mexico, Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to continue lingering over the eastern two-thirds of the state while possibly beginning to spread back westward and northward over the Permian Basin, South Plains, and portions of the Texas Panhandle. While much of the heavier density smoke is expected to remain aloft, enough could reach the surface, combined with elevated relative humidity levels and urban fine particulate background levels for the daily PM2.5 AQI to reach the lower end of the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area, particularly over portions of South Padre Island; the middle to upper end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Corpus Christi and Laredo areas; the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Austin, Big Bend, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Victoria areas; the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Beaumont-Port Arthur, Bryan-College Station, Houston, Midland-Odessa, Tyler-Longview, and Waco-Killeen areas; and the upper end of the "Good" range for the majority of the Amarillo and Lubbock areas. The daily PM10 AQI could reach the lower end of the "Moderate" range in parts of the Brownsville-McAllen area as well.

Slightly elevated urban fine particulate background levels over portions of Far West Texas associated with light morning winds and limited morning vertical mixing could maintain the daily PM2.5/PM10 AQIs at the lower to middle of the "Moderate" range in parts of the El Paso area.